“Our offices throughout SA report that vacancies in flats renting at R4000 to say R7000/month are rising, a typical occurrence at the late downward phase of the economic cycle,” he adds.

“It signals reducing disposable incomes and falling confidence in future income growth. What happens is young first time tenants either don’t move from their parents into their own accommodation or decide to move back home; sitting tenants downgrade to lower rentals at the end of their leases; couples who were considering splitting up decide they can’t afford to, and tenants in two flats arrange to double up in one and save money.

“The results can be sudden and quite dramatic, as they are now in Durban at 10.2% and Port Elizabeth at 12.2%.  Vacancies in some of these areas could rise to 15 - 20% in the next few months. But the turn around in about 18 months time will be equally dramatic when confidence returns. More than the usual kids leave home, couples separate and doubling up reverses to add to the normal take up rate of rental property.”

He says lower rent urban properties are not affected. People move into them from outlying areas in the good times or from higher rent properties in a downward phase, maintaining constant demand.