Supply still pumping despite Macro economic stutter

Posted On Friday, 12 January 2007 02:00 Published by eProp Commercial Property News
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The eProp macro Property Barometer, which collectively assesses the influence of certain key indicators on fixed direct commercial property, has dipped into negative territory on both the quarterly average and annual bases and as measured for available data as at October 2006. 

Property-Housing-ResidentiaThis was brought about by the relatively negative influences of lower consumer confidence, a higher exchange rate, a higher long bond yield, and increasing commercial development activity during the latter part of 2006. However, the fundamental prospects, such as demand and supply appetite, remain solid and furthermore we should see an improvement emerging on account of an interest rate stabilsation in 2007 and (hopefully) an improvement in the exchange rate.

The listed  property sector has retraced most of the losses experienced from mid 2006 and is  presently close to the high reached in May 2006; as such the J253 index has appreciated by nearly 33% over the past six months.
 
Turning to an important aspect constituting the market, namely the commercial property  supply trend, we see that commercial planning activity rose by 13% in October 2006, with completions still quite low at 1.36%, but the trend nevertheless climbing. As has been the trend for the last while, the rate of office completions remains significantly down (+50%) on 2005, though office planning activity has moved into top spot above industrial property at 31%.

 

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