The 2013 BMR retail sales forecast model designed by Prof Carel van Aardt is modelled on a baseline scenario based on various macroeconomic forecasts as outlined in figure 1. The figure benchmarks retail sales growth against the selected macroeconomic variables.

According to Prof Andre Ligthelm total formal retail sales at current prices are expected to amount to R747 620 million at an estimated 5.7% average price increase in retail items for 2013. Retail outlets that are expected to show the highest real growth rates include clothing, footwear and leather retailers (7.0%) followed by furniture, appliances and equipment outlets (5.0%) and general dealers (4.8%).

When reflecting on anticipated retail sales for food, beverage and tobacco products, the BMR expects that consumers are more likely to engage in bulk shopping (especially via general dealers) than spending on specialty food products.

Turning to the forecast of retail expenditure by product group, Prof Deon Tustin indicated that the BMR expects strong retail demand increases of 9.4% for ‘other’ durable goods (ie jewellery, watches, therapeutic appliances, etc), followed by computers and related equipment (7.6%) and clothing and footwear (5.6%).

Whereas sales of durable and semidurable retail goods are anticipated to grow around 5.0%, growth in demand for nondurable retail goods is expected to be just above 4.0%.