South Africa is Part of Africa but will it take part in Africa?

Posted On Tuesday, 08 January 2013 23:06 Published by eProp@News
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The World Bank has likened the doubling of African manufacturing output over the last decade to China’s position thirty years ago. Emerging Markets Investment firm Actis’ real estate director Louis Deppe believes that South African real estate investors who ignore the potential in African markets do so at their own peril.

Ivor Ichikowitz, founder of Paramount Group, a privately owned defence and aerospace company, believes South Africans have looked to Asia and the West for the best ideas and viewed them as their natural competitors, as opposed to our African neighbours.

Louis Deppe told Moneyweb at an Africa Property Investment Summit in Sandton."You have no choice not to care about Africa. It's on your doorstep. Some significant economies are going to overtake South Africa in a very short space of time. They're growing faster and have far more potential to grow."

An example Deppe probably has in mind would be Ethiopia, their economy is expanding at 7.5% annually and that's not just traditional industries like mining and agriculture, it's also manufacturing. An example on the periphery of Addis Ababa is Chinese shoe maker Huajian, which has built a factory employing around 500 workers.

An economist at the World Bank who recently wrote a report on light manufacturing in Africa cites this as an example of how Africa could overtake Asia to potentially become the world's next manufacturing hub.Low labour costs, the availability of natural resources, and preferential access (duty-free and quota-free access) to the US and EU markets are all some of the advantages of operating in Africa.

It is predicted that Nigeria, with a growth rate of 7% should overtake South Africa by 2015. Louis Deppe warns that up until now, South Africa, being, arguably, the most democratic and stable country on the continent, has been able to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), often getting the lion's share compared to other African countries. Once other countries also start fulfilling some basic requirements, this will no longer be the case.

South Africa used to be the gateway to the rest of Africa. If foreign investors wanted to set up and go into Africa, the FDI would come to SA first, before moving up north. This is no longer happening and foreign investors are now moving directly into Africa from China, Europe and the United States.

By 2035, the continent's work force will be greater than any individual state on earth. Nigeria and Ethiopia will add over 30 million workers by 2020, whereas South Africa is looking at adding 2 million.

However, it's not just manufacturing that Africa is excelling in and challenging South Africa. The Economist recently (August 2012) named Nairobi an "African tech hub" because of the hundreds of start-ups that have sprung up in the last few years. Kenya's exports of technology related services have risen from $16m in 2002 to $360m in 2010. It is also a world leader in the adoption of mobile payments technology – and is far ahead of China and India.

According to Ivor Ichikowitz, within a few years Kenya could soon emerge as a world leader in mobile payments and export the technology to countries across the world.

He also refers to the African film industry. The Nigerian movie industry, which has overtaken South Africa's to become the strongest on the continent worth £500m and producing more films than Hollywood every year. The films may not be international blockbusters, but they have huge appeal across Nigeria and Africa, and prove that Africans have the creativity to compete in non-traditional industries.

Clearly we need to be at least aware of what our neighbours are doing if our market is shrinking or stagnating and the world around us is getting bigger, werisk becoming less relevant in the grand scheme of things. Alas it seems the South African economy is sliding backwards while the rest of the continent is in first gear. Most African markets that Louis Deppe's Actis group invests in are experiencing 7% GDP growth. "Despite claims of corruption, a lot of that money still filters down into the economy, there's a lot of economic drive and growth." he said. He added that on the development side, Actis was getting returns of between 13% and 14%.

But Ivor Ichikowitz has a positive spin on this:"it's a positive opportunity for us to export our products and knowledge and generally expand trade with other African nations, which in turn will generate jobs for the youth of our country."

South Africa has some great assets – its infrastructure, mature private sector, well developed services sector, stock exchange – that give us the opportunity to provide a range of goods and services to help grow our own economy, but we can work harder to maximise these advantages.
Ichikowitz says that countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria are rushing forward and emerging as serious competitors for destinations of foreign capital.

This is pressuring our government and business leaders to look more closely at their policies and approach to business. The harsh reality is that if South Africa is to retain its position as the leading economy on the continent it can't for a minute 'rest on its laurels'.

Ichikowitz doesn't see South Africa as being in competition with the rest of Africa, but rather in a position to learn from and impart learning to neighbouring states, which is why it is essential that we share technologies and collaborate to build strong regional industries that bolster inter-Africa trade.

Deppe looks more into the nitty-gritty glancing back to what he refers to as a watershed year for property investments in South Africa, 2010, after the World Cup. "We had all these infrastructural projects, the economy had withstood the 2008 global recession. Then suddenly: what's next in SA? There's not much left in South Africa, we are a saturated market." Deppe said by way of illustration that vacancy rates had increased in many shopping centres across the country. As a result, investors' returns at 7% or 8%, which were not great to begin with, are shrinking and are likely to be impacted further. He said with GDP growth in South Africa being below 3% "you're not even going to get out of the starting blocks. You're actually going backwards in real terms."

The troubling dynamic among South Africa real estate investors is their reluctance to invest in Africa stems from an unfounded conservatism. "With the South African base not as strong as it was, it's forcing people into a mind-set to look abroad. I don't think they have a choice."Deppe said.

Last modified on Tuesday, 08 January 2013 23:09

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