Bank of England figures reveal that February’s approvals for house purchases – 37,937, up from 31,791 in January – is well above the six-month average of 31,500 and the highest level since May last year. Meanwhile estate agents and online property portals report renewed buyer interest with enquiries up 120% on last year.
Although it is important not to get carried away, these figures suggests that record low interest rates and recent house price falls are tempting buyers back to the market. The number of transactions remains extremely weak but the improvement in affordability is encouraging more buyers to transact.
“Exactly when property prices will start rising again is a difficult question to answer, but it would seem that we are now moving out of the initial phase of the downturn, which was characterized by low demand and robust supply, to an environment where both demand and supply are low which is likely to give some support to house prices’’ said Mike Smuts, the managing director of Smuts & Taylor. “This phase is likely to be followed by a market situation where demand is increasing and supply is low.’’
The rising mortgage approval figure will be especially interesting to the professional property investors who have been waiting for signs of an upturn before piling back into the UK buy-to-let market. Mortgage approvals are viewed as a forward indicator of housing demand. A fall in the number of mortgages being approved is normally the first sign of a downturn in the property market, and of course the reverse is also true. The numbers, compiled by the Bank of England from data from the Building Societies Association and the British Bankers' Association, reached near historic lows at the end of 2008 but are now climbing for a third month in a row.
Other house price indexes however still report price falls with Land Registry figures showing that monthly house prices in England and Wales fell by 2 per cent in February. The average house price is now £153,862, an annual decrease of 16.5 per cent – in line with most other house price indices, such as those from the Nationwide and Halifax. This is the 18th month in a row that prices have fallen with the North West worse effected with a 4.1% monthly fall. Most of these indexes however tend to use existing sales data and therefore are by definition lagging indicators.
“It’s important for investors to remember that there is no such thing as "the" housing market but rather an overwhelming complexity of micro markets” concludes Smuts. “Do your homework to ensure that you buy the right property, in the right area and at the right price because it looks like before the year is out, the UK market will stabilise, heralding the start of a buying stampede kept in check for over a year.”
Publisher: eProp
Source: Smuts & Taylor - UK

