“Take a well-established retail node like Rosebank, which at first looks pretty thoroughly represented across the retail spectrum,” he says. “In fact, the node represents a great retail opportunity for the Edcon Group, which currently only has a CNA and Red Square in The Mall of Rosebank.”

Lewin believes that right-sizing – a decision to increase or decrease specific retail store sizes to match demand – is one of the biggest opportunities for retailers to improve profitability in the current market.

“Re-working over-commitments, expanding under-commitments and securing a position in target markets where no representation exists are all key strategies,” he elaborates, pointing to The Glen shopping centre south of Johannesburg where a right-sizing exercise is underway.

The idea, he says, is for both retailers and centre managers to stay firmly focused on consumer needs and wants. “Some analysts have been vocal about the generic nature of retail offerings at SA malls. But remember: retail mixes are a response to shopper needs,” he says. “Often, unique and novel retail concepts do not create retail or investment success.” He cites the World Wear and Sable Square as two current specific examples.

Lewin is a veteran retail specialist and joined Madison’s retail asset management team in January this year. His new responsibilities include analysing and adding value to existing properties, navigating decisions about mall expansions and new development, and constantly assessing the retail strategies for listed property funds ApexHi, Hyprop and Redefine.

He concedes it can be a tricky market to read accurately, though, and retail property managers need to know their brands and geographic markets inside out. “There really is no single trend,” he says. “Some retailers are expanding, others are holding back and still others are reducing their presence.”

Take the examples of township retail and retail development in other southern African countries. Both trends have been attempted by SA retailers in recent years – with varying degrees of success.

“Right now there doesn’t seem to be a glaring opportunity for further township development,” he argues. “And although countries like Lesotho, Swaziland and Botswana are all extensions of SA from a retailer’s point of view, the countries beyond are far more complex and SA retailers who attempt to enter these markets have failed spectacularly.” Retailers like Pep, Shoprite and Game have been successful in both market sectors, but he also points to Smart Centre, which no longer exists, as a case in point.