REVENUE from electronic commerce transactions in SA is expected to more than double this year, from R3bn to R6,2bn, according to the first-ever study on SA mobile commerce.

A survey released by internet analyst Media Africa shows that revenue from business-to-business (B2B) e-commerce transactions accounted for R2,95bn, significantly outpacing business-to-consumer (B2C) transactions which only accounted for R50m of the total, during 2000.

While revenue from B2B transactions dwarfed that of the burgeoning B2C sector during 2000, it is this latter category that is set to experience a boom this year, the study forecast.

Revenues from B2C electronic commerce are set to increase twelve-fold to reach R600m rand this year, while revenues from B2B will merely double to reach an impressive R5,6bn.

And this trend is expected to continue with total revenues from e-commerce reaching R12,6bn by 2002, with B2B accounting for R11,4bn and B2C taking R1,4bn; and doubling again by 2003 to reap a massive R30,8bn (R28,3bn from B2B and R2,5bn from B2C).

While this sounds impressive, it still leaves SA as a minor player in the context of a global industry that netted $657bn in revenue during last year and is expected to surpass the trillion-dollar mark to reach $1,137bn in 2001.

According to Arthur Goldstuck, CEO of Media Africa, this survey is the first such analysis of e-commerce trends in SA.

Reliable e-commerce statistics were hard to come by, making this the most daunting survey yet conducted by the company, according to Goldstuck.

Media Africa also conducts a yearly internet services industry survey of the SA sector. 'For us, one of the most significant findings to come out of the survey was that B2B e-commerce is indeed a fully mature industry in South Africa,' Goldstuck said.

He pointed out that a number of companies have been using e-commerce to streamline supply and distribution channels for some time already, including Ster-Kinekor, Clicks, Iscor and Coca-Cola.

In particular, Goldstuck cited the increased popularity of mobile scanning equipment as one such B2B application, equipment now in wide-scale use in SA that has been used effectively to curb stock losses.

For Goldstuck, while the revenue-generating potential of e-commerce clearly lies with B2B, he still believes that B2C can be a significant source of earnings for savvy operators.

'While there has been a maturation in B2B e-commerce, the B2C market is only starting to find its feet,' Goldstuck commented.

Platforms such as Wireless Application Protocol (WAP), and cellphone-based mini-browsers such as MTN Ice and Vodata, have yet to be fully understood or adopted by SA consumers, he said.

However, as consumers begin to understand how these platforms can be applied to their everyday lives, this will change, he argued.

Goldstuck said that the B2C take-up over mobile devices would be driven by banking requirements, mobile account payments, online share-trading and ticket purchasing.

As for e-commerce trends, Goldstuck said that South Africans could expect to see a rash of solutions being introduced into the consumer market.

'A lot of these will be transient solutions and will continue to be rejected until they embrace ease-of-use as a standard manufacturing requirement.'

While Goldstuck expects the large returns seen by B2B e-commerce to continue driving the industry, the ever-increasing number of cellphone users in the country could see the B2C component provide the most exciting innovations.

With over eight-million cellphone users inextricably linked to a local cellphone industry worth R13bn, and expected to reach R20bn by 2004, the scope exists for enterprising companies to convert platforms into profits. — Rob Rose, I-Net Bridge.