Volatility playing havoc with listed property sector

Posted On Friday, 15 September 2006 02:00 Published by eProp Commercial Property News
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The unit-price volatility that has been a feature of the South African listed property sector since May appears to be continuing

Angelique de Rauville

After experiencing boom conditions for the past few years, the listed property sector lost about 25% of its value over a two-month period from May as emerging market jitters and rising interest rate fears took hold.

Although it has managed to recover most of this loss in capital value, this month also saw some price weakening again.

Angelique de Rauville, MD of Investec Listed Property Investments, said the listed property sector gained 23% this year up to May 10.

"Then all profits eroded as the sector dropped 24,8% from its high on May 10 to July 17," said De Rauville.

She said the second half of July and last month showed a major rebound in the sector, with it regaining 18,6%.

This month also saw negativity return with further downward pressure eroding 5,4% of these previous gains, De Rauville said.

The recent sell-off could possibly be attributed to two factors: the sector recovering too quickly in the six weeks since mid-July and general market jitters over more aggressive interest-rate rises compounded by higher-than-expected inflation figures. De Rauville said the next set of results for listed property companies with September reporting periods were due at the end of October and in November.

She said she expected these results to "bring further good news ? and return some of the capital values eroded. Until then, we are expecting the market to continue being fairly volatile. This is not all bad news as this can present some good buying opportunities."

Macquarie First South property analyst Leon Allison said he would "continue to expect volatility for the rest of year" and that this was in line with financial markets in general.

"The key focus for listed property investors should be income yield rather than capital appreciation. On a 12-month view we see limited capital growth potential from the listed property sector.

"The sector is now yielding 9,3% on a one-year forward basis and there is a high degree of certainty to that income," said Allison.

Last modified on Monday, 05 May 2014 11:43

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