Large shopping developments, anchored by national retailers, are beginning to make their mark in the townships. But mistakes are bound to be made because of the complex dynamics of life in these dormitory towns.

The mainstream business sector is largely unaware of these dynamics. And though a response to retail opportunities is welcome, poor research may dog initiatives as it did pre-1994.

One problem may be the "Eurocentric architectural fantasy", in the words of one property professional, that is out of kilter with the needs of people in previously disadvantaged areas.

Two weeks ago, Soweto unveiled Maponya Mall, a 60 000 m ² shopping centre named after respected Soweto entrepreneur, Richard Maponya. Maponya is a 50% partner in the development with Zenprop Property Holdings. The developers say the R450m mall has attracted interest from national retailers, and that they are likely to occupy 75% of trading space.

The Maponya Mall joins a list of other major Soweto retail developments, including a R250-million centre with 30 000 m² of trading space planned in Jabulani and a 250 000 m² mall in Protea Gardens. The last two are initiatives of Greenwold Property Development, which has also ventured into other townships, including Sebokeng.

Soweto will soon unveil another R60-million retail development: Diepkloof Plaza.

"Soweto has huge untapped market potential because residents have few shopping alternatives in the township," says Zenprop retail director Adam Blow.

He refers to a study undertaken by the City of Johannesburg in 2003, which estimated that Soweto commands buying power of R10,5bn/year and that R4,3bn/ year is spent on consumer goods.

Property economist Francois Viruly says a significant proportion of the black middle class remains in the townships and represents an attractive retail market. He adds that the rocketing prices of suburban residential property limit the movement of even moderately well-off blacks out of the township and into formerly white suburbs.

Yet a big proportion of the disposable income of township dwellers still finds its way into suburban retail centres. Developers of retail centres such as Maponya Mall are pinning their hopes on being able to bring this money back into the townships.

Using the experience of owning a R4-billion property portfolio, Zenprop promises to deliver a centre "comparable with the best shopping malls in SA ". The design and quality of Maponya Mall will not be any different from other modern shopping centres in Johannesburg's northern suburbs, says Blow.

But this is exactly where potential pitfalls lie. A replication of Sandton City in Soweto would almost certainly face serious problems.

"Township dynamics create different shopping patterns to those in the suburban shopping malls," warns Viruly.

Presented with the idea of megamalls for townships, a marketing professional says: "I wish developers the best of luck, but I will remain sceptical unless the idea is backed by a thorough feasibility study.

"There is generally little research that has gone into understanding shopping patterns in townships," he adds. "I have heard people talking about the huge disposable income available, but I have not been convinced that the market understands how that money is spent."

Unlike traditionally white suburbs, a lot of township shopping isn't reliant on owning a car. Instead, people walk to shops to buy a few items. Those who use a taxi to a shopping centre are also limited by what they can carry home. This is why there is still such a big spaza shop market and why it is unlikely to be reached by a Sandton City-like retail development.

"The secret is simplicity," says a property developer, who prefers smaller centres. He says they offer shopping to high volumes of consumers who want to buy baskets, not trolleyloads, of groceries.

As a result of an underdeveloped transport system, it is also easier for many township dwellers to take a taxi to a shop in, say, the Johannesburg city centre than to a local shopping centre in a farflung part of the township.

By their nature and size, megacentres such as Maponya Mall are multipurpose, mixing shopping with entertainment. But anecdotal evidence suggests the concept of "shoppertainment" is not well developed in Soweto. This is not to say residents don't mix shopping with entertainment, but when they do it tends to be at centres outside the township.

It is a feature partly attributable to a strong element of what Viruly calls "aspirational shopping": the tendency of township residents to shop outside their neighbourhood in upmarket centres such as Sandton City and The Zone in Rosebank as a way of moving up the social ladder. The distance between home and the out-of-neighbourhood-centre is attractive because it is, literally, an outing.

It is a fact, too, that affluent township residents and fashion followers prefer to shop at classy, one-off boutiques and not at the mass-market clothing chains that anchor new township malls.

Retail developers in townships had better be prepared for these dynamics. Or they could come unstuck.

Financial Mail