This is the time of the year when the media is full of assuring property forecasts by everybody who has a vested interest in property. But with talk of "affordability ratios", "replacement costs", "emerging middle classes" and "catching up to international norms", it can be confusing for those of you who live in the real world to know what to make of this high falutin' advice of tortured facts and figures.

So how can you tell when the property bubble is really about to burst?

Here is a simple and highly practical 10-point early warning system that anyone can follow and is guaranteed to help you sell at the top:

Your 22 year old hairstylist advises you which areas are next to explode in value. And you know the market is really in trouble when she also tells you that you should really buy a second home by borrowing against your first home to finance it and promises you will "make a killing".

Estate agents actually return your call. It is a very worrying development when estate agents even pick up the phone within the first 7 rings; but when they return your call sounding slightly breathless you know a crash is imminent.

You visit a showhouse and the agent is actually there. It is not the friend of the agent's babysitter who knows nothing about the property and is just there to write down names and generously invites you to "take a look around".

Closely related to above, if you do manage to corner an estate agent and beg them to show you a property, they merely point vaguely as you enter instead of bothering to show you all the unique selling points. They look at their watches as they stand impatiently at the entrance or take another call leaving you three minutes to make a decision as you hear the screeching of tyres as the next appointment arrives.

Your builder wears more jewellery than P Diddy and Edith Venter combined and the earliest he can see you to discuss your new home is in 18 months time. He also drives a car worth more than the value of your new house.

Smug bankers, traders, plastic surgeons and everybody who knows the Sheiks tell you in confidence that "you really can't overcapitalise you know". This is as they show you their plans to put in an indoor Olympicsize pool or add a west wing with a helipad.

All economists have the same bullish view and confidently predict growth of 20% this year, even while thousands of apartments in Sandton stand empty and sales volumes plummet. (Dose of Reality: Studies in the US have shown that economists ranked after garbage men and housewives in a 10-year economic forecasting accuracy study.)

Dodgy "professors" and selfstyled property "gurus" crawl from under rocks to hawk their seminars on the road to property riches. What is a worry is when the events are sold out. A bigger worry is when they write a book. The absolute final alarm bell is when you get it for Christmas.

You have friends who suddenly have new plasma screen TV's and drive new 4X4's. Because prices of their homes have skyrocketed, they have re-mortgaged and instead of putting in a pool or new kitchen, they are living large.

You know people who have always struggled to make ends meet who are now making millions in property. After losing the family fortune, bankrupting the fish and chip business, they have become millionaires through property speculation and now own more houses in Cape Town than Robert Mugabe's cabinet.

Business Day