Economics Correspondent
JOB growth remained static in the last quarter of last year, according to an expanded survey by Statistics SA, tempering optimism of job creation in the formal sector.
An increased sample size for the survey of employment and earnings shows a 0,02% rise in nonagricultural formal sector jobs in the last quarter compared to the third quarter last year.
However, the increase of 1000 jobs over the quarter was not statistically significant, said Stats SA.
The survey suggests the economy was experiencing joblessness growth, with gross domestic product growth of 2,4% in the fourth quarter last year not being translated into new jobs .
The results differ markedly from previous surveys which showed job growth in the last three quarters of last year mainly due to a revamped sample size for the survey, which includes previously ignored sectors, such as telecommunications, real estate, educational services, medical services, welfare organisations and restaurants. The latest survey excludes only the agriculture and informal sectors.
Ros Hirschowitz, deputy director-general of Stats SA, said the previous estimate had 4,7million employees in the formal economy, while the latest survey puts the figure at 6,3-million.
"The survey gives us a very accurate picture of employment in the nonagricultural and non-VAT registered sector," she said.
The biggest drop in employment was in the financial sector, with jobs falling 2,9%. Stats SA said this could be due to smaller financial institutions being absorbed by large institutions .
The biggest job growth was recorded in the electricity, gas and water supply sector, with employment rising 3,3% to 52000 . The increase was mainly due to a rise in temporary workers .
Signs of employment growth in the previous surveys gave rise to optimistic statements by the Reserve Bank that the employment trend was reversing after years of decline. The previous survey showed employment in the nonagricultural formal economy increased 0,3% in the second quarter, 0,7% in the third and 0,5% in the fourth quarter. Based on these results, the Reserve Bank said in its June monetary policy review that employment was being more responsive to economic growth.
"This may indicate that the restructuring process and productivity increases which have characterised the economy since the early 1990s had progressed to the point where further increases in output increasingly require more labour input," the review states.
Stats SA said the new survey would be published as an official statistical release, while the previous surveys were published as discussion documents only.
Hirschowitz said the agency had not calculated whether the rise in employment in the previous surveys was statistically significant or not.
" We prefer that the older survey not be compared to the new one. In the new survey, it shows that there is no significant difference in employment between September to December last year," she said.
The expanded survey makes it more comparable with the Labour Force Survey completed twice a year to measure the unemployment rate which estimates that 6,9-million people are employed in the country.
Whereas the Labour Force Survey measures labour supply , the survey of employment and earnings estimates demand .
Aug 07 2003 07:31:57:000AM Nasreen Seria Business Day 1st Edition
Publisher: Business Day
Source: Business Day
Survey shows jobs growth was static in last quarter of 2002.
Posted On Thursday, 07 August 2003 02:00 Published by eProperty News
Statistics SA research reveals that despite 2,4% GDP growth, there was no significant creation of jobs in formal sector.
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