(The delay) has come as a surprise. Evidently, there must be a problem with the rental survey. If there is a real distortion in the numbers it could have an effect on the MPC's decision and therefore it is crucial that they (Stats SA) have their facts straight," said Standard Bank economist Monica Ambrosi.
Stats SA's figures for rentals were compiled from a 1999 household survey. It is assumed that rents rise 34,5% annually, with rents for housing, flats and townhouses increasing 2,3%, 3% and 94% respectively.
Some analysts have pointed out that these annual increases are outdated and have inflated the housing contribution to CPIX.
Investec Asset Management's portfolio manager, John Stopford, said more recent information on rentals could almost halve housing's contribution to monthly inflation.
However, the effect of the changes would be felt only in the second quarter of next year, he said.
The delay in the inflation numbers is likely to create uncertainty in the market, which has been keenly awaiting the data to give some indication of whether interest rates will be cut next month.
"It is always a bad thing if data is postponed because people fear the worst," said Merrill Lynch economist Jos Gerson.
Economists are expecting CPIX to have slowed to 10,4% year-onyear last month, giving the Bank enough room to cut interest rates by one percentage point next month.
May 20 2003 06:59:14:000AM Business Day 1st Edition
Publisher: Business Day
Source: Business Day
Inflation figures delayed due to outdated rental data be eased.
Posted On Tuesday, 20 May 2003 02:00 Published by eProperty News
Thus, a removal of any distortions to the data would be welcomed, economists said.
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