This emerges from the just released SA Property Association (Sapoa) quarterly office vacancy statistics for 39 areas in greater Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban and Cape Town. It shows that in 21 areas vacancies increased over previous levels during the last three to nine months with declines recorded in 18 areas. Critically for the office market there seems to be little indication of a net take up of space.

On the contrary Stan Garrun, MD of IDP, which compiles the statistics for Sapoa, says that if anything vacancies are still rising albeit slowly.

Agreeing, property analyst Erwin Rode says the figures seem to be largely in keeping with an office property market going through a consolidation phase. He believes the turn around could still be about 18 months away provided the world economy doesn’t collapse and SA’s economic growth continues at around the 3% mark.

“When it does turn, however, it could be quick with a rapid take up of free space so I would advise tenants to begin their medium-term planning now,” says Rode.

Obviously as availability of space declines so rentals will rise.

According to the Sapoa statistics the highest current gross asking rental is being achieved in Sandton with at least one property asking R125/m2 for A-grade space though the average rentals are a more sober R65/m2.

In contrast the lowest gross asking rentals are mostly in the main CBDs with Johannesburg heading the list with A-grade space available from just R19/m2 (average R27/m2), Midrand at R24/m2 (average R48/m2) Durban at R32/m2 (average R49/m2) and Pretoria at R32.5/m2 (average R33/m2). Cape Town’s central business district bucks the trend to some degree with A-grade rentals starting at R56/m2 and averaging R57/m2.

According to Garrun the rental patterns reflected in the survey tend to indicate that a number of long term leases are now coming up for renewal.

In terms of vacancies the biggest swings include a 9% rise in vacancies at Johannesburg’s Bruma, apparently thanks to 6 000m2 (gross) coming onto the market; Randburg with a 7% increase (though a resurvey of the area is said to be the biggest contributing factor); and, a 5.3% increase at Rivonia thanks largely to the departure of a single tenant accounting for 5 000m2. Vacancies in Pretoria’s Brooklyn area also rose by 5.9%.

In contrast the main declines in vacancies occurred at Hyde Park/Dunkeld where available space fell 11.8% from a high of 33.2%; a 9.5% improvement in Johannesburg’s Melrose/Waverly area, apparently thanks particularly to significant take up of space at Melrose Arch (a classic example of filling space by reducing rentals to realistic market-related levels); and, Woodmead where vacancies fell into single figures (9.7%) from 14.6% nine months ago.

Landlords, will doubtless be encouraged to note that 20 of the areas surveyed have vacancies in the single digit arena though only five of these are under 5%. Fourteen precincts fall between the 10% and 20% level and five areas above that, including Johannesburg CBD, Hyde Park, Rivonia, Claremont in the Cape, and Durban CBD.

In terms of wider areas Pretoria seems to have done particularly well with six of its nine office areas recording falls in vacancies.

This, according to Rode, is an on-going reflection of how well Pretoria has fared in the new SA, driven partly by factors such as the large numbers of new diplomatic missions established in the city since 1994 as well as the growth of new affluent civil servants who have moved into the town centre and enhanced it where a similar influx of poorer people in Johannesburg has contributed to the creation of slums.