Speaking at a press conference on Tuesday, van Zyl noted that over 50% of the population could now be considered to be part of South Africa's "middle class" or higher, being placed in the Living Standard Measure (LSM) categories 6-10, compared to less than 40% in 2004.
"Those people with jobs have managed to climb up the wealth ladder thanks to several major trends, including above-inflation wage increases in both the public and private sectors, more higher-income jobs being created, a strong increase in government grants for the poor and relatively benign inflation and interest rates.
Although some of these trends are now weakening, we still see enough remaining intact for consumers to keep getting wealthier over the next few years," explained van Zyl.
For example, she says, the government's wage bill has increased from R156bn to R314bn over the past five years, representing a compound annual growth rate of 15%, well above inflation. Although this high rate is not likely to continue given the government's debt worries, wages are still likely to rise at above-inflation rates for the foreseeable future, giving government workers growing real incomes. "We believe both public and private sector workers will continue to benefit from higher-than-inflation wage growth as has been the case since 2003, especially should the current round of widespread strikes prove largely successful. Although this has been a problem for our labour competitiveness, workers have been able to improve their living standards significantly as a result."
At the same time, observes van Zyl, although there have been a net 442,788 jobs lost in South Africa since 2007, almost all of these have been lost in LSM categories 1-4, while hundreds of thousands have also been created in LSMs 5-10, the higher-earning categories. "And, the move up the LSM ladder continued through the worst period of job losses after the global financial crisis."
"If you look at social grant spending, the government's budget has increased by R40bn in five years, or 11% every year, and the total is budgeted to rise by 8% over the next few years to some R120bn. This is a significant injection into the economy, and still arguably rising faster than inflation."
Importantly, she says, the data show that consumers have not been funding their spending binge of the past few years with debt: spending, at 13%, has been growing more slowly than personal disposable income (at 14%) since 2009. "If anything, consumers are saving a bit more than before the financial crisis, so there appears to be unnecessary concern over rising unsecured lending levels."
All of these factors point to SA consumers remaining healthy for at least the next few years, continuing their climb up the LSM ladder, albeit more slowly, notes van Zyl. "The strong tailwinds might be over now, but consumers should remain healthy, also helped by relatively low inflation and interest rates.
SA consumers do face several near-term risks to their ever-growing wealth, warns van Zyl. These include potentially higher food inflation due to the severe drought in the US, which has created shortages of key grains like maize. A further weakening rand may also spark higher general inflation, therefore eroding real incomes. Finally, the influence of external factors like the current slowdown in global growth will dent exports, impacting on jobs and incomes in export-dependent sectors.
"However, given the prevailing subdued economic growth globally, inflation is less of a concern now, barring some extreme event like a collapse in the rand – say, if it rises to R10 per US dollar," she observes. "So far it has only depreciated by 10% against the dollar this year, so the threat is not yet serious, and doesn't make a significant difference to our overall consumer outlook. But consumers would be best advised to continue saving more and investing more if at all possible, in order to meet their longer-term needs.
